I know everyone is going a little stir crazy now - on top of anxiety about lost wages, kid's education, job security, food, toilet paper, rent, mortgages- you name it - we are worried. I don't remember what a good night's sleep feels like. My dog wants me to get out of the house and leave him alone so badly - he has this strange look in his eyes now and I'm getting a little afraid of turning my back on him. The entire country has our same concerns- and we have our own unique ones as our economy is tied to tourism - restaurants, cruise lines, etc. The current Federal Government suggestions on "Opening up America Again" may be sounding good to folks who are really struggling- but all I can do is remind everyone to be careful and look to history to give us some guidelines.
I'm sure you have all heard the comparison between what is happening now with COVID 19 and what the world experienced just over 100 years ago with the "Spanish Flu," (just to make the point - COVID 19 is named because the virus first appeared in 2019 - not because it is the 19th version of coronavirus - just like the Spanish flu did not originate in Spain. It was called the Spanish flu because it manifested itself among soldiers fighting in WWI. None of the combatants - Germany, France, Britain etc. wanted to report on anything that would impact the war effort so the press in those countries was censured. Spain was a neutral country - thus their press was free to report on the wave of influenza that was wreaking havoc at the time - thus the moniker "Spanish Flu"). But I digress.
The important historical fact of note is that the first wave of the Spanish flu was bad- people got really sick -but many people who got it survived. The mortality rate in the spring of 1918 when it first appeared in the U.S. at an Army base in Kansas was similar to normal seasonal flu. By the end of the summer of 1918, flu cases had dropped off and people thought they were out of the woods and began relaxing some of the safety measures they had imposed -such as masks and 1918 "social distancing". Then the second wave of the virus hit in September of 1918 - and this time a huge number of the people who were infected did not survive. Young, healthy people were dying horrible deaths within a day of their symptoms first appearing. Millions died worldwide - over 195,000 people died in the U.S during October 2018 alone. The theory is that during the lull between the spring and summer of 1918 the virus mutated and continued to be spread by wartime troop movements. It died out again by late December 1918- and then one of the last waves hit in January - April 1919. By that time, the war was over so the world-wide spread due to troop movements slowed and the virus slowly died out.
Public health officials in 1918 knew that quarantining would help slow the spread of the virus- but many were unwilling to do that during wartime. Particularly in Europe, where there were shortages of just about everything, they were loath to put one more burden on their citizens.
So here we are - back at looking at "Opening Up America Again". Yes - without question - we need to do this to survive- hopefully, the sooner the better. But if the history of 1918 has taught us anything - it is that we need to make sure that the sacrifices people have made personally and professionally to try and slow the spread of the virus does not end up being for nothing. If we go back to pre-quarantine "normal" without adequate testing capabilities and a firm plan - we run the risk of a second wave of cases hitting us that will end up overwhelming our health care systems and causing a second shut down of the economy. Today, the head of the CDC warned that the second wave of this virus that is likely to hit in the fall of this year will be very bad as it combines with the start of the normal flu season. Apparently, there may be some clarification of his remarks, but history would tend to support his initial comments. So, no matter what the plan is – no matter when we are told it is “safe” to go back to work – use your own best judgment. I think masks are going to continue to be a required fashion statement for a good long while and that is not necessarily a bad thing.
Stay safe.
Pat Rathburn
